Way too Early Reaction on Mizzou/Nebraska

There are four quarters in a college football game. Apparently the Missouri Tigers need to be apprised of that fact. It’s past 11:30 and I have to drive home tomorrow, so I’m not going to waste a lot of time on this. For those of you who saw the game, you already know what happened. For those of you who were fortunate (or had the forethought) to skip it, here’s what you missed:  Mizzou played incredible defense for the first three quarters, holding Nebraska to 0, yes 0, points only to have a total meltdown in the fourth quarter by giving up 27 unanswered points to lose 27-12.

It’s surprising, actually, because I wrote in my preview that if Mizzou would win if they were able to hold Nebraska’s offense in check. Mizzou did just that, shutting down the Huskers for three quarters. It all began to unravel with an all too familiar seen for Tiger fans:  a busted coverage in the secondary led to a 56 yard touchdown pass to put Nebraska on the board. From there, the floodgates would open.

So how is that Nebraska was able to survive an anemic offensive output couples with numerous special teams errors which resulted in several turnovers? Simple:  Defense. Nebraska’s defense made Mizzou’s offense look so pedestrian that it was able to keep the team in the game. Put it this way:  a team with a decent offense would have been up 21 or 28-0 on Nebraska. But not Mizzou. Despite all the early Husker mistakes, the Tigers were only able to eek out a 12-0 lead. Nebraska gained a mere 263 yards of total offense…and still outgained Mizzou. I don’t care if it was raining, and I don’t care if Blaine Gabbert was on one leg–that was a pathetic offensive performance.

For those of you who were singing Blaine Gabbert’s praises–I wasn’t one of you, because I knew all along he was due for a game like this–I bet you’re not so eager to say he’s an upgrade over Chase Daniel, are you?  I don’t recall the Chase Daniel-led offense ever looking that inept during his first season as a starter.

Look, I don’t want to make this into a fire and brimstone post. I’m not that kind of fan. I don’t want any coach to be fired or any player to be benched because of tonight. This is an extremely young football team, and they are going to have games like this. Truthfully, we didn’t know how good this team was. They didn’t play anybody during the non-conference season. If you read that last sentence and said, “But they played Illinois and Nevada,” I want you to slap yourself right now. You know damn well that those teams are atrocious.

I’m going to give you the three reasons I feel Mizzou lost:

1) Offensive Line — These jokers have underperformed all season. Blaine Gabbert was running…or limping…for his life all night. It was due to the line not being able to handle Ndamukong Suh that Blaine Gabbert spent the vast majority of his time hobbling. I don’t know who started the rumor that Mizzou’s O-line was any good–whoever it was probably doesn’t know much about football.

2) Blaine Gabbert — I know I just said the kid is young and all, but that doesn’t exempt him from some of the blame. On that sack in the first quarter on which he was injured, Gabbert should’ve thrown the ball away. He also completely self-destructed in the fourth quarter. I counted about four or five passes in a row he threw that should have been intercepted. He was lucky on the first few, but not all of them–he ended up throwing his first two picks of the year and looked flummoxed basically all night.

3) Coaching — It’s hard to single out one person when an entire team experiences a collapse the magnitude of Mizzou’s. You have to put it on the coaching staff. They didn’t do a good enough job of stopping the bleeding once Nebraska mounted their comeback, and they didn’t do a good enough job of keeping the players positive. At one point, Pat Forde tweeted that the sideline was “dead…shellshocked.” I couldn’t have agreed more. That’s on your coaches.

Give credit to Nebraska, however. Their defense made enough plays to keep them in the game while their offense proceeded to do absolutely nothing for 3 quarters. A lesser mentally tough team would have thrown in the towel…or at least quit and kept the towel to dry themselves off. Their mentality was that if they could keep the game close that, sooner or later, Mizzou’s defense would break. That’s exactly what happened. Credit to Bo Pelini and his coaching staff. Huge credit to Ndamukong Suh, as well. That guy should be your Heisman front runner. Not Tim Tebow and not Colt McCoy (who has been pretty pedestrian, actually). Suh is a beast, plain and simple.

Hopefully, Mizzou can learn some things from this loss and rebound to play well at Oklahoma State next week, but not if they bring the same kind of mental toughness they displayed in the fourth quarter. More performances like the one we saw the final 15 minutes last night, and Mizzou will struggle to win 3 more games.

Game Preview: Mizzou vs. Nebraska

Columbia, Missouri, is the stage for one of college football’s biggest early season matchups as the 3-1 Nebraska Cornhuskers take on my 4-0 Missouri Tigers. I had planned on making this a rather lengthy preview, but, for the millionth time, I don’t get paid for this. I probably should get paid for this. My insight is golden. Okay, probably not, but whatever. Here’s what I’ll be looking for in tonight’s game:

Nebraska

1) Can the Huskers play the game they want to play?

It’s going to be sloppy in Columbia tonight, and Bo Pelini would like nothing more than to give the Tigers a steady dose of Roy Helu, Jr., and Rex Burkhart. Conventional wisdom states that ball control teams that run the football have the advantage in poor weather. Will conventional wisdom hold true tonight?

2) Can Nebraska take the crowd out of the game early?

Even with the rain I still expect attendance to be in the high 60s if not low 70s, and the place will be rockin’. What’s the best way to silence a crowd like that? Simple:  score early or force an early turnover/3 and out. Nebraska will be looking for one or more of those events in order to take the Faurout Field crowd out of the game.

3) Can Nebraska rattle a QB making his first conference start?

Even though Blaine Gabbert has been dynamite this year, it has been proven that you can rattle the kid early. Just look at the first half of the Bowling Green and Nevada games for proof. Nebraska would like for their All-American-caliber DT, Ndamukong Suh, to introduce himself to Mr. Gabbert early and often.

Missouri

1) Can the running game finally get rolling?

Don’t get me wrong, Missouri will probably always have a pass-first mentality, but coming into this year, OC David Yost thought it wise to lean on an experienced running back and O-line to help take some of the pressure off Blaine Gabbert. If you’ve been following Mizzou then you know that hasn’t been the case, as Blaine Gabbert has been responsible for the majority of the offensive output thus far. Whatever the problem with the running game and O-line is needs to be diagnosed and fixed by Bruce Walker, Josh Henson, and David Yost. Derrick Washington has got to get something going tonight if the Tigers stand any chance.

2) Can Dave Steckel sharpen his D’s run-stopping?

Mizzou’s D was gashed by a very good Nevada rushing attack a couple of weeks ago. I don’t have the stats handy, but it wasn’t a great performance. Jaron Baston and his cohorts on the D-line have to create penetration and get into Nebraska’s backfield. An effort similar to what we saw against Nevada won’t cut it tonight.

3) Can Missouri score touchdowns if/when it gets into the red zone?

Thus far, Missouri’s red zone offense has been…well…horrendous. The specific stat eludes me, but I’m fairly certain that Mizzou ranks at or near the bottom of the Big 12 in red zone touchdown percentage, meaning that, more often than not, they’re settling for 3 instead of walking away with 7. Don’t think it’s that big of a deal? Ask Nebraska fans how many field goals they settled for inside the red zone against Virginia Tech.

Nebraska will win if…

Roy Helu, Jr., and the other backs in their stable rush for more than 175 yards AND the defense gives up no long touchdown plays.

Missouri will win if…

Blaine Gabbert completes at least 63% of his passes and has more touchdowns than interceptions AND the defense forces at least two turnovers.

Bottom Line

Missouri can’t afford to have another slow start. If the offense comes out and stalls on their two or three possessions–as they’ve been prone to doing since the Illinois game–Nebraska will take advantage and run away with this game early. Regardless of if Mizzou wins the coin toss or loses and goes on D first, the first unit on the field MUST set the tone for the game. That means a touchdown drive for the offense or a three and out and forced punt for the defense. Nebraska represents a huge step up in competition from Mizzou’s previous four opponents, and any Tiger fan that thinks that we’re going to see a repeat of the 2007 or 2008 games will be sorely disappointed. This is going to be a tough, hard-fought, physical game, and Missouri has to win the battle in the trenches if it wants to come away with the Victory Bell.

Prediction

Missouri wins a slugfest with a fourth quarter drive engineered by ex-Nebraska Commit Blaine Gabbert. Final score:  Mizzou – 28, Nebraska – 24.

College Football Week 4 Preview

On a count of going to the Mizzou game last Saturday, and the hijinx that preceded going to that game, I was unable to get my Week 3 predictions up in time. Last week’s slate was a lot sexier than this week’s, at least it seems that way on the surface. There are some pretty decent games this week, let’s take a look with a new feature:  I’m going to give the spread for each game and pick accordingly.

Southern Mississippi at Kansas (-14)

This has the potential to be a VERY dangerous game for KU. Not only is Southern Miss. being pegged by many as a potential BCS buster, they also have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. On top of that, KU has had to deal with the distraction of its football team fighting with its basketball team this past week. I think KU ultimately wins this game, but doesn’t cover the spread. The final score is going to be a lot closer than any Jayhawk fan would want. Southern Miss – 28, KU – 35

California (-7) at Oregon

How often is it that a road team is a favorite at Autzen Stadium? Doesn’t happen very much, but that doesn’t matter today. Oregon has looked pretty shaky all season, even in victory over Utah last week. Cal, on the other hand, has been rolling. They pulled away from Minnesota late last week to avoid the upset, and I really think this is their time to rise up and win the Pac-10 with USC being down this year. Jahvid Best has a monster day against the Ducks as Cal wins and covers the spread. Cal – 27, Oregon – 17

Miami at Virginia Tech (-2)

This should be the most entertaining game of the day, on paper. Miami comes in with swagger galore with victories over two ranked, ACC foes. Virginia Tech comes in after escaping Nebraska last week. Nebraska should have beaten Virginia Tech handily, but they couldn’t score in the red zone and were the victims of the worst defensive breakdown (that final drive) that I’ve seen since Todd Reesing to Kerry Meier on 4th and 7 vs. Mizzou last year. Yes, Tiger fans, I went there. I do, however, think that the “U” is on their way back, and a win today goes a long way for Miami and catapults them into the BCS conversation. Virginia Tech loses and, therefore, automatically fails to cover the spread. Miami – 21, Virginia Tech – 17.

Iowa at Penn State (-11)

This is your quintessential revenge game. Penn State is looking to put the hurt on Iowa after the Hawkeyes knocked them out of the national championship race late last season. A lot of experts are picking Iowa to either win this game or be competitive. I don’t know if I buy that or not. The revenge factor can count for a lot. Look for Darryl Clark and the Penn State offense to finally get on track after playing three nobodies. Penn State opens their season with a huge win over Iowa in the White Out at Happy Valley. That was  a rip on Penn State’s non-conference schedule, BTW.  Iowa – 14, Penn State – 31.

Texas Tech at Houston (Pick ‘em)

There’s no line on this game, because the Vegas odds-makers see these two teams as being evenly matched in this particular scenario. Houston is the non-BCS flavor of the day, it seems, after beating then-No. 5 Oklahoma State in Stillwater a couple of weeks ago. Tech is coming off a gritty loss against the Longhorns on national television last Saturday night. Tech QB Taylor Potts took a ton of heavy shots during that game, and although he finished the game and performed well, I don’t know how he isn’t hurting today. Look for Houston’s defense to step up and get after it in somewhat of an upset, according to me anyway. Here’s the thing:  this is one of those games in which the experts say that the two teams may combine for 100 points and 1,100 yards of total offense. Those games usually end up being defensive slug fests…not this game, however. Texas Tech – 45, Houston – 52.

Week 4 Mizzou Review

I’ve gotten away from my college football prognosticating lately, but like I’ve said before. I really don’t have the time to devout to this that I’d like…and I’m not getting paid for it. I wish I was getting paid for it. That would be pretty cool. If anyone from ESPN or Sports Illustrated, or any other sports outlet, happens to stumble across this and like it, shoot me an e-mail and let’s talk business.

That will probably never happen, but a guy can dream, can’t he?

Let’s talk some football.

My Missouri Tigers went on the road last night to play winless Nevada in Reno on national television. This was a “trap game” for many reasons, not the least of which being Nevada was playing their home opener for a legendary coach who was starting to draw the ire of the fanbase. You know the Wolfpack wanted to win one for the Gipper…or, um, the Ault.

The final score was 31-21 in favor of the Tigers. Nevada scored a late touchdown and two-point conversion to make the score a little more respectable. Despite leading 31-13 late in the fourth quarter, this was actually a really close game, one that the Tigers had to reach deep down to win. Let’s take a look at what happened with a report card:

Offense

Quarterback, A-

Blaine Gabbert played a hell of a game, throwing for over 400 yards and showing incredible poise and moxie during key fourth quarter drives. Marching the team 97 yards down the field to put the game away was such a veteran move, even if the kid is only a sophomore. That being said, he took a couple of bad sacks and did fumble once. However…

Offense Line, C-

The offensive line was pretty dreadful all night. They were the reason Gabbert took those bad sacks, as they proved incapable time and again of providing adequate pass protection. Nevada was able to pressure Gabbert with four men. This is the not the first time this season that a supposedly superior O-line has failed to block four D-lineman. They’re constant underachieving is going to cost this team at some point. Don’t even get me started on the running game. It was dreadful all night. I don’t know if it’s the blocking schemes, the play-calling, or what, but the running game was dreadful last night. I think most of the blame has to be put on the O-line for failing to open any holes for backs to run through. Just a sad night for the O-line.

Running Backs, C

I already touched on it some, so I won’t be redundant, but even though the O-line failed to open holes on a consistent basis, it wasn’t like the backs were taking advantage when the holes were there. Derrick Washington broke one long run in the fourth quarter, but other than that–and a 19-yard gain on a reverse in the first quarter–the running game did nothing. Again, not the first time the backs have failed to produce this year.

Wide Receivers, A

The wide receivers were spectacular, and Danario Alexander played out of his mind. Time and again the receivers went up and pulled down Gabbert’s bombs–even when it appeared that Gabbert was just throwing it up for grabs. The receivers also converted several key third-downs in the fourth quarter when the game was hanging in the balance. If I had a collective game ball to give, it would go to the Danario Alexander and the wide receivers.

Defense

Defensive Line, B

The D-line flashed some brilliance last night, but they were also gashed by Nevada’s rushing attack. The D played a nearly flawless second quarter, sacking Colin Kaepernick three times and holding Nevada in check. That being said, during the first drive of the game and the first drive after halftime, the D-line provided no resistance to Nevada’s rushing attack. It could be argued, however, that the D-line saved the game with their forcing Luke Lippincott to fumble near the goal line. HUGE play.

Linebackers, B-

Again, serviceable game from the linebackers. Spoon had a couple of big plays, and Andrew Gachkar had some big hits. But like the D-line, the linebackers provided little resistance to Nevada’s running game for most the game. Hard to argue with the overall performance, however.

Secondary, B+

I was impressed with the secondary. They didn’t give up too many big plays. Of course Nevada is known more for their rushing offense, but the secondary was still pretty solid. Carl Gettis had a critical pass breakup before half-time, as a Nevada receiver had broken free down-field and probably would’ve scored had Gettis not caught up to him and jarred the ball loose.

The game followed the usual pattern for this season:  horribly sluggish first half with the defense keeping the team in the game. The offense found its rhythm in the second half and made enough key plays to put the game away late. This team has got to do a better job of starting strong out of the gate, because I don’t know if sleepwalking through the first half in Big 12 play is something this team can recover from on a weekly basis.

ESPN.com blogger Tim Griffin said it best when he opined that this was the type of game that Gary Pinkel would have lost back in the day. Fortunately, this isn’t back in the day, and Pinkel appears to have built a program–not a team. That’s the difference between a program and a team–a program has the talent to win consistently, without a huge dropoff after a couple years of success. A team does not. Coming into this season, a lot of people had written Mizzou off as just a talented team that had lost too many components to be successful this year. Through four games, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case.

Prediction

Georgia Tech visits Miami tonight in ACC Coastak Division showdown. GT survived against Clemson last week, and I really like their Triple Option to do damage tonight. Miami is improving, but isn’t there yet. Georgia Tech, 38 – Miami, 27.

College Football Week 2 Predictions

Short post this morning, as I woke up sick and still don’t feel well. Here are my predictions for five key games:

Notre Dame, 31 – Michigan, 17

Notre Dame’s D shuts down the Wolverines in the Big House. Look for Jimmy Clausen to have a big game.

Bowling Green, 14 – Missouri, 35

BGSU will put up a few touchdowns on a still-improving Mizzou defense, but the Tigers have too much firepower for the Falcons to handle.

Kansas, 28 – UTEP, 21

KU survives a scare tonight in El Paso. I’m not going with the upset, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jayhawks get a battle tonight at the Sun Bowl.

UCLA, 17 – Tennessee, 42

Lane Kiffin gets off to a 2-0 start with a win today. UCLA is still a year or two away from being really good, as are the Vols, but Tennessee’s defense will be the difference.

USC, 38 – Ohio State, 21

The Buckeyes once again fail to get it done against a marquee team in in a big game. Trojans dominate this one early and take the air out of the ‘Shoe.

College Football Week 1 Recap

National Recap

Week 1 of the 2009 college football season is officially in the books. What can I say other than, “Wow!” It was such an amazing weekend of games. I now present the official Sleepy at Eight Thirty Week 1 College Football Recap:

As per usual, I’ll touch on some national topics before going in-depth on my Missouri Tigers.

Week 1

Lookin’ Good:

Miami – Did you watch that game last night? It’s far too early to declare that “The U” is back, but they certainly look like they’re on their way after last night’s scintillating win over arch-rival Florida State.

BYU – Outplayed a good OU team on national television. Kudos to Bronco Mendenhall and staff for developing an excellent defensive game plan that kept pressure on OU’s QBs all night–even knocking Sam Bradford out of the game.

USC – Pete Carroll once again has the Trojans loaded. A 56-3 beat down of San Jose State proves that the Men of Troy are as ferocious as ever. Another Pac-10 Championship looks within reach for this group.

Oklahoma State – Beat a solid Georgia team from the overrated (in my opinion) SEC. The Pokes stumbled out of the gate early, but righted the ship and put UGA on lockdown after allowing an early touchdown.

Boise State – Put the clamps on a supposedly explosive Oregon offense on Thursday night. Thoroughly outplayed Chip Kelly’s Ducks and made a statement that they’re ready to crash the BCS party.

Lookin’ Not-so-Hot:

The ACC (Athletically-Challenged Conference) – Just a horrible weekend for the ACC. Their best team (Virginia Tech) gets housed in the Saturday night showcase game, two schools lose to FCS opponents (Duke to Richmond and Virginia to William & Mary), Maryland gets destroyed by Cal, Wake Forest loses at home to Baylor and, well, you get the point. The conference had only one win over an FBS opponent–Clemson’s win over Middle Tennessee State.

Ohio State – The Buckeyes were one two-point conversion away from going into overtime against Navy. Yes, Navy. The Midshipmen came into the Horseshow and gave the Vest’s boys all they could handle. I seriously hope that Tressel and staff get things straight before USC comes a callin’ Saturday night.

Oregon – Laid a giant, yellow and green egg on the Smurf Turf in Boise on Thursday night. This is the time that was supposed to challenge USC for Pac-10 supremacy? HA!

LeGarrette Blount – In case you don’t know by now, Blount is the Oregon running back who sucker punched a Boise D-lineman who was talking smack to him. It’s never acceptable to lose your cool like that, especially on national television. Here’s hoping he gets his anger under control and goes on to a successful career in the NFL.

Oklahoma – That rebuilt offensive line needs to be sent back to the factory for some serious maintenance. Not only was the O-line incapable of picking up BYU’s zone blitzes, they also were flagged for a million holding calls and false starts. To add injury to insult, the O-line failed to pick up a BYU blitzer who dropped reigning Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford with a hit that resulted in Bradford suffering a separated shoulder. Not a good start for Big Game Bob & Co.

Take it Easy, Tiger Fans

Mizzou 37, Illinois 9. A big win for Mizzou, I know. No doubt that score turned a few heads across the nation. Turning even more heads was the performance of sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, who stands 6′5″ and weighs in at about 240 pounds, displayed the kind of poise and skill that makes NFL scouts drool. Oh, yeah, he also carved up Illinois’ secondary in his first career start–in front of a home crowd in St. Louis, none-the-less. If you’ve been reading any of the press coverage of the game, you’d swear that Gabbert has already won the Heisman Trophy and is a sure-fire bet to be the #1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Slow your role, Tiger fans. This kid and this team have a long way to go. Let’s start out with the positives.

Gabbert – Kid was unbelievable in his debut. 25 of 33 passing for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Add to that a rushing touchdown and that makes one hell of an opening act.

Offense – The wide receivers were excellent. Only a few noticeable drops and some outstanding, drive-sustaining catches.

Defense – Night and day between this year’s first game and last year’s. Don’t remember the complete disaster that was MU’s defense again Illinois last year? I’ll refresh your memory:

2008 – Juice Williams goes 26 of 42 for 451 yards and FIVE TOUCHDOWNS.

2009 – Juice Williams goes 18 of 28 for 179 yards and one interception.

2008 – Illinois rolls up 532 yards of total offense.

2009 – Illinois manages 325 yards of total offense.

Like I said…a huge difference. I give the credit to new defensive coordinator Dave Steckel and his no-nonsense approach. He simplified the defensive playbook by elimination a lot of the overly complex and confusing blitzes and schemes that resulted in several defensive players constantly being out of position last year. My disdain for former DC Matt Eberflus is no secret. I think Eberflus got way too cute with his playbook last year and was trying to prove to everyone how much of a genius he was–potentially to land a head coaching job somewhere. His plan backfired in a big way, and it’s a good thing he’s gone, because he should have been fired after last year’s debacle. After Game 1, Steckel seems like an upgrade in every area. And don’t discount the fact that he coached from the sidelines and brought his intensity down to field-level. I think Eberflus lost his defense last year; the players seem to be responding to Steckel in a major way.

I would be doing a disservice to my loyal readers if I didn’t address the negatives I saw:

Gabbert – While he played exceptionally well, he did make some rookie mistakes. He wasn’t calm under pressure in the beginning, threw a ball in the air that should’ve been returned for a touchdown, and was flagged for intentional grounding.

Offense – The O-line struggled in pass protection at times. They struggled MIGHTILY in the running game, as they were unable to open any holes for the running backs.

Play-calling – I thought Dave Yost did a pretty good job in his first game as OC. However, it seems that he didn’t learn from any of his predecessors mistakes. I still saw way too many of the slowly-developing, ineffective running plays on 3rd and 1.

Defense – The pass-rush was basically non-existent. I kept reading about how  MU’s “three-headed monster” at defensive end was supposed to create havoc in opponents’ backfields, but they were largely neutralized. Also, I wish the DBs would play a little tighter and not give opposing receivers such wide cushions.

All that being said, however, I was thoroughly pleased with the overall team effort. Mizzou looked focused and ready to play, while Illinois never looked like they were in it. Not sure Ron Zook survives to see another season if the Fighting Illini don’t turn things around.

I’ll end the post with three questions I want to ask Mizzou’s coaching staff:

1) What’s up with not working the clock when you’re up? Is there some rhyme or reason to sticking with the 1 minute, 45 second drives when you’re up by two touchdowns in the second half? It seems like it would be smarter to work the clock and give your defense some time to rest.

2) Are you going to install more plays in which Blaine Gabbert lines up under center? It would seem advantageous to have a few of those plays tucked away for those crucial 3rd down and short situations. The QB sneak was nice, but why can’t you line up in the I-formation and pound it with one of your backs?

3) Why not mix up the uniform combinations? Do you have any idea how good the black jerseys would look with the white pants and white shoes? If you don’t know, look at my earlier blog post “Uniform Combinations Mizzou Should Wear” for an idea.

I’ll be back on Thursday afternoon with a prediction for Clemson-Georgia Tech and Friday night/Saturday morning with my Week 2 Picks. Right now, however, it’s bed time.

Week 1 College Football Picks

So my preview was a little disappointing. I planned on having a thorough, all-encompassing preview of all six BCS conferences. I ran out of time, lol. Additionally, I started in on it, and realized how daunting it would have been. And like I said in the preview itself–I’m not getting paid for it. Let’s shake the negativity and do some picks. I plan on previewing five games each week. Here are the Week 1 Predictions:

Missouri, 30 – Illinois, 24

Why Missouri wins:  The unexpected. Nobody knows what to expect from Blaine Gabbert and the rest of the Tigers. I think that Gabbert comes out and plays really well, and Dave Steckel’s defense comes out and plays well, too. Juice Williams and the Illini will put points up, but Mizzou will put up more. Should be a good game in the Edward Jones Dome.

Oklahoma State, 35 – Georgia, 30

Why Oklahoma State wins:  Offense, offense, offense. And some defense, too. Oklahoma State has brought in Bill Young to correct a defense that, statistically, was one of the worst in the nation last year. I know SEC Fanboys are going to say that Georgia’s defense will be the difference, but I don’t see Georgia doing anything big on offense. Plus they’re playing a new quarterback…who is sick (literally). This is a must-win for both teams, but the Cowboys will pull it out. If it weren’t for the Mizzou game being on at the same time, I’d watch this game.

Notre Dame, 30 – Nevada, 20

Why Notre Dame wins:  Pressure. It’s no secret that Charlie Weis’ job is on the line this year. It seems like he needs to reach a BCS bowl in order to be retained next year. I think ND’s office will be better than it has been over the past couple of years, and look for the defense to improve under first-year DC John Tenuta.

Oklahoma, 45 – BYU, 28

Why Oklahoma wins:  Too much firepower on offense, and too much talent on defense. Big 12 schools aren’t known for their defenses, normally, but from everythin I’ve read, Oklahoma will have one of the best defenses in the country this year–especially along the D-line. That’s such an underrated ability:  the ability of a defense to put pressure on a quarterback with their D-line alone. It allows for the other seven players to drop back into coverage, which closes a lot of passing windows that would be left open with a linebacker/safety blitz.

Alabama, 17 – Virginia Tech, 13

Why Alabama wins:  Defense. Plain and simple. Alabama’s defense is nasty. Just nasty. This will not be a high-scoring game. Also, look for some plays on special teams to decide this one–blocked punt, kickoff return, etc. This game will be a true test of how far Frank Beamer’s program has come over the years.  A great game to start the season off with.

2009 College Football Preview

As you all know, the college football season began in earnest last week with a couple of defensive showdowns. I correctly picked that Boise State would beat Oregon, but I was wrong on NC State beating South Carolina. Neither game was terribly entertaining–at least not the game itself, the aftermath, however, was a different story–but it was an entertaining opening night in the end.

By the way, did you see Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount light up that Boise State D-lineman who was talking smack to him? Wow. Blount will be suspended for no fewer than three games–four to six wouldn’t surprise me. I know he was being jawed to, but that’s never acceptable.

Last night I decided to condense my season preview quite a bit. A couple of reasons why:  first, there was no way I could finish the season preview I started in time for the season, and second, I’m more interested in writing on a week-to-week basis. That being said, here’s the Official Sleepy at Eight Thirty (SAET) 2009 College Football Preview.

Preseason Heisman Trophy Award Winner:  Colt McCoy, Texas QB

Preseason BCS Bowl Game Predictions:

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. USC:  This will be a rematch of their Week 2 regular season game. I’m going to go ahead and tell you that I’m picking OSU to beat USC in Week 2, but with true freshman Matt Barkley and the revamped Trojan D having a full season under their belts, the rematch will go to the Trojans.

Sugar Bowl – Mississippi vs. Penn State:  This matchup really has some potential. Ohio State is going to win the Big 10 and meet USC in the Rose Bowl, but Penn State’s trip to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl will be a really nice consolation prize. I’m hesitant to pick Mississippi to make it this far, only because they seem like the one team that ends up underachieving after EVERYONE picks them to do big things in the preseason (2008 Clemson ring a bell?)

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Boise State: In a rematch of one of the best college football game in recent memory–the 2007 Fiesta Bowl–Oklahoma will meet up with Boise State. Unlike 2007, however, Oklahoma will win this time. Bob Stoops is long overdue to break his BCS game losing streak. To reach this game, Boise will have to go undefeated. One loss will knock them out of contention quicker than a gay person running for mayor of a small town in Alabama…or any other state in the Dixie for that matter.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers: If this prediction comes to fruition, which I hope to God it doesn’t, history will remember this as one of the worst BCS matchups in history. The only reason I’m picking Rutgers to appear in this game is that somebody has to win the Big East. They’re the likely front-runners due to one of the worst schedules I’ve ever seen. Virginia Tech will make a third consecutive appearance in the Orange Bowl, much to their fans chagrin, I would imagine.

BCS National Championship – Florida vs. Texas: The matchup that everyone was clamoring to see last year will happen this year, as both Texas and Florida will run the table and meet in Pasadena for the crystal football on January 7. I’d be stunned if anyone beat Florida this year, and while I predict a slightly more difficult road for Texas (at Mizzou, ahem), I still see them coming through unscathed.

Well, that wraps up my BCS predictions. I’m not going to predict the matchups for every bowl game, because that would take way too long and I’m not getting paid for this. On to some conference predictions. You’ll notice that I don’t go into detail on any conference except the Big 12. That’s not by choice–I ran out of time. Darn procrastination.

ACC

Atlantic Division Champion – Florida State

Coastal Division Champion – Virginia Tech

ACC Champion – Virginia Tech

Big 10 Champion – Ohio State

Big East Champion – Rutgers

Pac-10 Champion – USC

SEC

SEC East Champion – Florida

SEC West Champion – Ole Miss

And now…onto the good stuff.

Big 12

Big 12 North Champion – Missouri (Record:  9-4)

Losses: Oklahoma State, Texas x 2 (regular season, Big 12 Champ.), and one wildcard loss that I can’t identify.

Big 12 South Champion – Texas (Record: 13-0)

Losses: None, obviously…thus the “0″ following the “13″

Big 12 Champion – Texas

That may seem like a homer pick…and it sort of is, but I honestly don’t see a team in the Big 12 North that that much a better chance of winning the division than Missouri. Let’s take a look at the division, team by team:

Colorado – I like Colorado to make some noise this year, but not enough noise to win the division. “10 wins and no excuses” will come back to haunt the Hawk.

Iowa State – Please. Year 1 under a new coach and…well…please.

Kansas State – Again…please. Bill Snyder is going to wish he stayed retired after this season.

Kansas – You can already pencil in 3 conference losses:  Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. KU needs to steal one of those games in order to win the division.They have a really good offense, but their defense is suspect at best, and I’m just not sure they can get over that brutal cross-division schedule.

Missouri – I know the Tigers lost a prolific quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, etc. But I think Gary Pinkel has done a good job recruiting and has enough talent to win a pretty poor division. I think people are going to be surprised by Blaine Gabbert this season, and let’s face it–the defense can’t possibly be any worse than it was last year. New coordinators on both sides of the ball may seem like a detriment for most teams, but new OC David Yost doesn’t have the go or stubbornness of his predecessor, Dave Christensen, and new DC Dave Steckel is…well…just an improvement over Matt Eberflus. Eberflus was a terrible coach, plain and simple.

Nebraska – Call me cynical if you will, but I just don’t get the media’s love affair with Nebraska. They lost their starting quarterback, and the kid they have replacing him hasn’t thrown hardly any college passes. They just kicked their #2 running back off their team–they’re a running team, too–and they lost their top receivers. All this, and somehow they’re expected to just roll through the division. I’m not buying it. Not at all.

That about wraps up my 2009 college football preview. I’ll be back later with Week 1 Picks.

College Football is Back!

It’s here! It’s here! It’s finally here! College football begins TONIGHT! I’ve been working on my college preview for a few days now, and it should be up soon. I have tomorrow off work, so I’ll spend a few hours finishing the preview and will hopefully have it posted by tomorrow night. However, I wanted to hit you with a couple of picks for tonight’s games:

South Carolina at North Carolina State

Winner:  North Carolina State

Reason:  Russell Wilson. Tom O’Brien has a stud of a quarterback in Russell Wilson, who came out of nowhere last year as a freshman to put together an All-ACC caliber season. Also, NC State is playing at home, which can never be disregarded. And, after last season’s 34-0 season-opening shellacking at the hands of Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks, NC State will be out for revenge.

Score:  NC State 28, South Carolina 24

Oregon at Boise State

Winner:  Boise State

Reason:  The Smurf Turf. Just kidding…I suppose. Actually, Boise State has one of the best home field advantages in the country. I think they’ve only lost two games this decade at home–one of which was a bowl game against Boston College, the other one eludes me at the moment. The point is, you can look anywhere in the country and not going to find a better home record than that. From a personnel perspective, I like Oregon, but don’t sleep on Boise State’s athletes–they have plenty. I just think the combination of the home field advantage and the fact that Oregon is debuting a new head coach (former OC Chip Kelly) will be too much for the Ducks to overcome. I like Boise State to win this game as an opening act to a 12-0 season and a second appearance in a BCS game.

Score:  Boise State 34, Oregon 31

**As a sidebar to this game, look for Oregon to debut new uniforms tonight. I really like them. Personally, I hope they go with the steel pants, white tops with carbon numbers and the carbon helmet.

The Blue Turf and a Raucous Home Crowd will Lift the Broncos to Victory